Rob Blackhurst

Mr Blair needs better reasons than political advantage if he is to win an EU referendum

Published: 19 April 2004

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is a pungent irony that Downing Street has chosen to float its volte-face on the European constitution in the pages of the Murdoch press. Newspapers that have helped scupper the Prime Minister's ambition to "settle Britain's relationship with Europe" gave the first sign that plans were afoot to hold a referendum early in a Labour third-term. The Government's belated conversion is widely expected to be officially confirmed this week, removing a thorny problem in time for the Euro elections this June, and posing a new threat to the health of Gordon Brown's cuticles.

It is a pungent irony that Downing Street has chosen to float its volte-face on the European constitution in the pages of the Murdoch press. Newspapers that have helped scupper the Prime Minister's ambition to "settle Britain's relationship with Europe" gave the first sign that plans were afoot to hold a referendum early in a Labour third-term. The Government's belated conversion is widely expected to be officially confirmed this week, removing a thorny problem in time for the Euro elections this June, and posing a new threat to the health of Gordon Brown's cuticles.

Seasoned observers, and not a few pro-Europeans, are baffled. Why does Blair plan to stake his reputation on a constitution that 80 per cent of the public remain opposed to, and that most of the tabloid press will spend the next two years trying to destroy?

The answer proves that, whatever else has happened to Tony Blair, his instincts on domestic politics remain finely honed. Firstly, Cabinet ministers feared an election campaign in which they were dogged by the question: "Why don't you trust the people?" Arguing that public opinion in Britain, unlike Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain and the Czech Republic and (probably) France, does not deserve a hearing, was not a message to relish on the doorstep. Secondly, the old opposition leader in Blair couldn't resist outflanking the Conservatives by breaking their strongest weapon. Thirdly, conceding the referendum throws some red meat to Rupert Murdoch ahead of the election campaign. And fourthly it is a recognition of parliamentary realities. A Tory dominated House of Lords could insert a demand for a referendum in the Constitution Bill regardless of the Government's position. If it's going to happen anyway, the Government might as well take the credit for it.

All these are perhaps secondary to Blair's personal reasons. In the short term, he is spoiling for a fight that will allow him to escape the groundhog day arguments about Iraq. In the long term, he wants to burnish his political legacy. Since 1997, political cowardice and the implacable opposition of the Chancellor have killed off the prospects of Britain joining the euro under Blair. With worries about how far he can push through his other agenda - public service reform - winning a European referendum would at least be a golden valediction to his term in office.

But it is the substance of constitutional change, rather than the political expediency of one party or Prime Minister, that should decide whether Britain holds a referendum. Peter Hain claimed last year that the constitution was a "tidying up exercise" unworthy of a national poll; it will be interesting to see why - politics aside - the Government has changed its mind. Until the negotiating deadline of 17 June it will be unclear whether the changes it brings about will be important enough to put to the popular vote. If Britain's "red-lines" on tax, social security and defence are crossed, there could be a plausible case. But, if, as seems likely, Blair returns with these national vetoes in these areas heroically intact, it is difficult to see the clear issues on which people will be voting. Certainly few voters will take the 335 page document to bed with them.

If there is be a referendum, it is essential that there is no attempt to elide the question of a constitution with membership of the EU. The Electoral Commission will be wary of any semantic fudge, and it would be counter-productive for Pro-Europeans to seem, yet again, that they are afraid to debate the issues. Blair, arguably the most European prime minister ever, has allowed Euroscepticism to grow under his tenure. Ringing promises of Euro road-shows, "changes in gear" and speeches to "face down his critics" have been followed by silence. It is to be hoped that in any vote he can draw on the reserves of resolution and enthusiasm that so far have been denied the European cause, but have been so freely expended defending the occupation of Iraq.